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CFDsPros Daily Analysis March 3, 2010
S&P 500 Visual Trading Update
General Notes: How do you explain that the Greek CDS improved dramatically? Is it because Angela Merkel accepted to give German tax payer money for paying Greek past excesses? Or maybe it's closing time for the big boys positions, after their maneuvers were a little bit compromised in the US and European political corridors. As always we leave this question open for your consideration. The situation is a bit bizarre: Rising GOLD and Stocks but no real move in currencies. The EUR is still in its very large trading range, but the Australian and Canadian currencies are showing us that the China suppliers are not getting more momentum. We enter another end of week of Us Jobs data. This is starting to get ugly, after all the money poured on this issue, and the small results achieved. Larry Simmons told us yesterday that the weather did have an effect on these numbers, but we don't know toward which direction. If it will be on the downside, it will tell us that the momentum for cutting costs is still in force, even when people cannot get to work. The general structure of the markets looks like topping but it can take a long while for seeing dramatic changes. Current Trading Plan: Position: LONG Last (26-02-2010) Closed position @ 1104 (-$4) Long: Since 02-03-2010 at 1115 Short: Below 1084 Exit by Stop Loss: at 1115 (Breakeven) Technical Indicators Notes: Last time we said: "No range here. The index is showing strength: following the upper Bollinger band, RSI and STOC in a very positive combination, MACD in Daily and H4 charts, moving upward, and over their signal line. But the most important point, for today, is that the index has moved beyond the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (Daily chart) after rebounding at the 38.2% level. Such action is always bullish. The obvious target is 1125. We are now long with the SL at the breaking level of the small internal up trend line." Theoretically, the index has arrived at the level we mentioned. It is now or never. If it will go further, in big volume (look volumes stats in the different financial outlets), we will know that it wants to take out the January highs, and that the start of the next bear market have been postponed. We move our LONG SL to breakeven, because it is the best thing to do (money management wise). RSI-STOC Combination: Reversing from an overbought situation. ATR: At a level where volatility starts to increase. MACD: Daily and H4 in a positive setup and momentum, but H4 looks curling down. Charts Legend: In Price Window: Simple Moving Average (20): Green Bollinger Bands (20,2): Violet Support & Resistance price areas: Pink and Light Green areas Trend lines and Channel Boundaries: Blue Elliott Waves Counts: Black and Blue numbers In Indicators Part: RSI (10): Blue, STOC(5,3,3): Green, ATR(5): Blue MACD (12,26,9): Blue, Signal: Red, Histogram: Green Indicator trend lines and effects: Magenta Signals: Long: Above the Green line Short: Below the Red line Exit position: On crossing the Cyan line SL in case of triggered level: Dashed Cyan Line --- analysis written by Moshe Shalom for --- Disclaimer Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. ________ Last edited by CfdPros : 05-17-2011 at 05:32 AM. |
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