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Unread 02-18-2016, 07:16 AM
WindsorBrokers WindsorBrokers is offline
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Technical Outlook for Majors 18/02/2016

EURUSD
Near-term structure remains weak, as the pair posted marginally lower low at 1.1105 yesterday, with another red daily candle with long upper shadow, which confirms persisting downside pressure.
However, the pair was so far unable to close below pivotal 1.1120 support, Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.0709/1.1374 rally, despite probes below support.
Extended congestion would be likely near-term scenario, while 1.1120/00 support zone holds, as daily studies are bullish, with 20/200SMA’s Golden Cross being formed and underpinning larger bulls, which are currently in corrective phase.
Also, daily Slow Stochastic turned sideways in oversold territory, suggesting possible reversal.
Selling on upticks remains favored, ideally towards 1.1205, Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.1374/1.1105 downleg / 10SMA, for renewed attempts lower, with tight stop at daily Tenkan-sen, break of which to signal reversal.
Final break through 1.1120/00 supports will open 1.1075/55, daily Kijun-sen / 200SMA, as next strong supports. Loss of the latter is needed to confirm reversal.
Res: 1.1148; 1.1177; 1.1191; 1.1205
Sup: 1.1105; 1.1075; 1.1055; 1.1000


GBPUSD
Cable rallies above near-term consolidation range, signaling formation of hourly base at 1.4230 zone, after yesterday’s action was shaped in long-legged daily candle, signaling indecision.
Current rally presents the fourth, corrective wave of five-wave downmove from 1.4665, 04 Feb high, which should ideally reverse at 1.4460, before commencing fresh bear-leg.
Daily Slow Stochastic, reversing from oversold zone, supports the action, with initial barrier, daily 30SMA at 1.4377, being reached so far.
Next resistance lies at psychological 1.4400 level and also marks Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 1.4665/1.4233 downleg, followed by daily 10SMA at 1.4426.
Early upside rejection will signal fresh bears, while extended fourth wave should not exceed 1.4500, Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.4665/1.4233 descend.
Res: 1.4377; 1.4400; 1.4426; 1.4460
Sup: 1.4337; 1.4270; 1.4233; 1.4200


USDCAD
The pair slumped yesterday, on fresh rally of crude oil, leaving long red daily candle, which confirms return of near-term bears fully in play.
Fresh weakness broke today below rising daily Ichimoku cloud base and came ticks away from key near-term support at 1.3637, 04 Feb low.
Daily close below cracked Ichimoku cloud base is needed to confirm break and extend the bear-leg from 1.4014, 11 Feb lower top.
Sustained break below 1.3637 pivot, will open 1.3595, daily 100SMA and 1.3539, Fibonacci 61.8% of larger 1.2829/1.4688 rally, in extension.
However, consolidation above 1.3637 pivot cannot be ruled out, as near-term studies are oversold, with daily Tenkan-sen at 1.3830, expected to ideally cap upticks.
Broken daily cloud base now acts as immediate resistance at 1.3710.
Crude oil remains the main driver of the USDCAD pair.
Res: 1.3710; 1.3750; 1.3810; 1.3830
Sup : 1.3651; 1.3637; 1.3595; 1.3539


AUDUSD
Aussie returned to full bullish mode after yesterday’s dips were contained by daily 20SMA at 0.7080, with subsequent sharp acceleration higher that closed above thin daily Ichimoku cloud and left long-tailed long daily bullish candle.
Strong bullish signal was generated for further upside attempts and full retracement of 0.7241/0.6972 downleg, as yesterday’s rally peaked above 76.4% of 0.7241/0.6972 pullback. Break above 0.7241 barrier is required to signal resumption of the second bull leg of correction from 0.6825 low and expose 200SMA at 0.7291.
Today’s corrective dips were contained by thin daily cloud base at 0.7129, keeping near-term bulls fully in play.
Daily 10SMA at 0.7111 marks pivotal support and extension below here would soften near-term tone and delay attack at 0.7241 target.
Res: 0.7185; 0.7212; 0.7241; 0.7291
Sup: 0.7146; 0.7129; 0.7111; 0.7080
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