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  #1  
Unread 09-10-2009, 03:52 AM
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Forexpros.com Daily Analysis - 10/09/2009

Forexpros Daily Analysis Sep 10, 2009


Premium Webinar - Sharpening Your Edge: Recognizing the Candlestick Patterns

Expert: Andrei Pehar
Date: Thu, Sep 17, 2009, 11:00 EST

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The rise that we expect to be in a 5-wave mode, is still developing nicely, reaching 1.46 for the first time this year. We still believe it has enough strength to reach the top of the channel, which is slowly approaching 1.47. The resistance which stopped yesterday's rise is actually 1.4592 (yesterday's high was 1.4600), and we will adopt it as resistance of the day. A break here would indicate strength that has the ability to lead the Euro to the top of the channel, which is currently at 1.4665. And if this resistance is broken there will be nothing separating the price from December's unforgettable top: 1.4720. As for short-term support it is 1.4548, if broken, the door will be open to a correction of this strong and sharp rise, which is expected to lead to testing yesterday's low 1.4465 and after that 1.4395: Fibonacci 50% for the whole move up from 1.4190 last week to 1.4600 yesterday.

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  #2  
Unread 09-14-2009, 04:10 AM
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Forexpros.com Daily Analysis - 14/09/2009

Forexpros Daily Analysis Sep 14, 2009


Premium Webinar - Sharpening Your Edge: Recognizing the Candlestick Patterns

Expert: Andrei Pehar
Date: Thu, Sep 17, 2009, 11:00 EST

Learn to predict where price is likely headed next using the only 6 candlestick patterns you ever need to know. No more need to memorize dozens of patterns or go through stacks of books - just about every other formation you'll run across in your trading is a variation of these basic 6, and once you know them you'll be able to recognize the early warning signs of both continuations and reversals.
Join leading fund manager and trading coach Andrei Pehar for this next exciting installment of the Sharpening Your Edge series.


to join the webinar.

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As we have expected, the rise stopped between 1.4620 & 1.4667, and from there we have seen a correction that reached 1.4515 until this very moment. We still believe that this correction is targeting 1.4459 at the very least, and that it could go all the way to 1.4357. But, before we feel over-excited for this correction we should see a break of short-term support 1.4501, and after that we can talk about the ideal targets such as 1.4459, 1.4408, or 1.4357. On the other hand, the resistance that should not be broken to keep the big probability of this correction is Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term 1.4589, staying below it will favor this correction, while breaking it will mean another attempt to reach the top of the rising channel which is at 1.4671 for today.

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  #3  
Unread 09-15-2009, 04:38 AM
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Forexpros.com Daily Analysis - 15/09/2009

Forexpros Daily Analysis Sep 15, 2009


Premium Webinar - Sharpening Your Edge: Recognizing the Candlestick Patterns

Expert: Andrei Pehar
Date: Thu, Sep 17, 2009, 11:00 EST

Learn to predict where price is likely headed next using the only 6 candlestick patterns you ever need to know. No more need to memorize dozens of patterns or go through stacks of books - just about every other formation you'll run across in your trading is a variation of these basic 6, and once you know them you'll be able to recognize the early warning signs of both continuations and reversals.
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The Euro held above the suggested support 1.4501 and rallied to a new top for this trend at 1.4650, which is still inside the suggested area for a top. The top of the channel is currently at 1.4682 and this will be a curtail resistance, that could stop the current rise and force a correction of good size. We favor the formation of a top in these areas as long as the Euro does not break the top of the channel decisively. After that we expect a move down to areas below 1.45. The only thing that could save the Euro from a sizable drop is a clear break above the top of the current channel. The previous 1.4570 resistance will act as the most important support for short-term, and breaking it means the correction is back on track, and is heading to 1.4459 at least, in the next few days.

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  #4  
Unread 09-16-2009, 04:54 AM
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Forexpros.com Daily Analysis - 16/09/2009

Forexpros Daily Analysis Sep 16, 2009


Premium Webinar - Sharpening Your Edge: Recognizing the Candlestick Patterns

Expert: Andrei Pehar
Date: Thu, Sep 17, 2009, 11:00 EST

Learn to predict where price is likely headed next using the only 6 candlestick patterns you ever need to know. No more need to memorize dozens of patterns or go through stacks of books - just about every other formation you'll run across in your trading is a variation of these basic 6, and once you know them you'll be able to recognize the early warning signs of both continuations and reversals.
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Reaching the top of the channel at 1.4684, but not breaking it, the Euro is still inside the suggested area for a top. The top of the channel is slowly approaching 1.47, more accurately it is currently at 1.4691. And between here and 1.4720 we have a good resistance that can curb this slow rise. If this happens, we will break 1.4654 and head towards the short-term 61.8% Fibonacci support at 1.4607, which the euro needs to hold above to survive the expected correction. If it does not hold above here, the correction would be already underway, targeting 1.4459 at least, in the next few days. On the other hand, if the euro surprises and breaks the whole 1.4691-1.4720 area, then there would be no reason to believe a correction is going to start from these areas. In this case, we are heading to many resistance levels above 1.48 the first of which is 1.4824.

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  #5  
Unread 09-17-2009, 03:53 AM
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Forexpros.com Daily Analysis - 17/09/2009

Forexpros Daily Analysis Sep 17, 2009


Premium Webinar - Sharpening Your Edge: Recognizing the Candlestick Patterns

Expert: Andrei Pehar
Date: Thu, Sep 17, 2009, 11:00 EST

Learn to predict where price is likely headed next using the only 6 candlestick patterns you ever need to know. No more need to memorize dozens of patterns or go through stacks of books - just about every other formation you'll run across in your trading is a variation of these basic 6, and once you know them you'll be able to recognize the early warning signs of both continuations and reversals.
Join leading fund manager and trading coach Andrei Pehar for this next exciting installment of the Sharpening Your Edge series.




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The euro broke above the rising trend channel for the first time, reaching a new high for this year at 1.4746, and leaving any expectation for a correction to start in these areas, in very bad shape. A break to the upside in a rising channel is usually a signal that shows how powerful the uptrend is, which makes it only logical to expect more gains for the European single currency. But it is required to stay above 1.4702 to be able to achieve these gains. If the Euro holds above the broken channel, it would be expected to advance to areas above 1.48, specially 14824 and 1.4880. It is very important to hold above this channel which is at 1.4702 now. If we fall back below this level we could see a good move trying to get far from the top of the channel and targeting 1.4641 and below. It is very important to keep an eye on 1.4702 today!

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  #6  
Unread 09-21-2009, 04:55 AM
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Forexpros.com Daily Analysis - 21/09/2009

Forexpros Daily Analysis Sep 21, 2009


Free webinar tomorrow - Market Fundamentals 1


Expert: Mark Dela Paz
When: Tue, Sep 22, 2009, 11:00 EST

Foundations of Fundamental Analysis. Understanding the meaning of price and a review of the academic theory on foreign exchange rate determination.



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The Euro is approaching at this very moment the bottom of the rising channel on the hourly chart, and in the same area we noticed an intraday support that has shown itself several times lately, which adds more importance to this level. Reaching this area is the most important test for the EURUSD since reaching 1.4766 last Thursday. If it survives here, there will be a chance to test the most important resistance for the short-term 1.4723 which is the falling trendline from last week's high, and if this resistance is also taken, we will have a good chance of seeing the top of the channel which is currently at 1.4824, this week. On the other hand, breaking this channel would be a clear signal of weakness, and would mean that we are currently in a correction for the whole up-move from 1.4176 to 1.4766, which is going to target 1.4541 at least, and probably areas below it, the most important of which are 1.4471 & 1.4401.

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  #7  
Unread 09-22-2009, 04:22 AM
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Forexpros.com Daily Analysis - 22/09/2009

Forexpros Daily Analysis Sep 22, 2009

Free webinar today - Market Fundamentals 1


Expert: Mark Dela Paz
When: Tue, Sep 22, 2009, 11:00 EST

Foundations of Fundamental Analysis. Understanding the meaning of price and a review of the academic theory on foreign exchange rate determination.


.

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The Euro held around the secondary Fibonacci support of 23.6%, which is in the 1.4620 area, and went back up to above 1.47. The "limited" move of yesterday had "limited" effect. We have re-drawn the channel, to make it comprehensive, and to include all the price behavior since the beginning of the month. The bottom of this new channel is exactly at Fibonacci 38.2% support 1.4541, which makes this support a candidate to be the decisive area separating positive from negative territory. As for the short-term , the support is 1.4705, and a break here would initiate a correction for the rise from yesterday's low, ideally targeting 1.4656, the support that if broken would open the road to test the most important support for now 1.4541. Short-term resistance is 1.4756 and breaking it is the key to reach 1.48 for the first time this year, where some targets await us, especially 1.4824 and 1.4901.

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  #8  
Unread 09-23-2009, 03:58 AM
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Forexpros.com Daily Analysis - 23/09/2009

Forexpros Daily Analysis Sep 23, 2009


Free webinar - The Ichimoku Cloud

Expert: Chris Capre
When: Thu, Oct 1, 2009, 12:00 EST

A Trend, Volatility and Oscillator combined, the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo is a unique indicator which gives dynamic support and resistance levels, trend direction/strength, volatility levels and clear/precise rules for entry and exit parameters. Combine all those weapons and you have a powerful method for trading the global markets.

In this webinar we will talk about how you can find filtered intraday trending moves, spot upcoming weaknesses in an instrument, and find unique trading opportunities through Kumo Analysis.




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As expected, the Euro reached 1.48 for the first time this year, and also reached the first target suggested in yesterday's report, which leaves the second target 1.4901 ahead of us, could we see it today? The current advance is still climbing (slowly we might add) without showing exhaustion, and the top of the current channel is at 1.49, these thing support the probability of going up. On the other hand, a divergence case on the RSI is developing as we speak, supporting the opposite scenario. These mixed signals could go in harmony if we manage to go up to 1.4901 first then go down to solve the divergence. The most important resistance for short-term is 1.4824, and breaking it is the key to hit 1.4901. the most important support for the short-term is 1.4783, and breaking it would threaten the Euro with a drop to the important 1.4698. Only if we break this support we can start talking about the big correction for the whole move up from 1.4176, because such a discussion before that break would be completely premature.

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  #9  
Unread 09-24-2009, 04:27 AM
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Forexpros.com Daily Analysis - 24/09/2009

Forexpros Daily Analysis Sep 24, 2009


Free webinar - The Ichimoku Cloud

Expert: Chris Capre
When: Thu, Oct 1, 2009, 12:00 EST

A Trend, Volatility and Oscillator combined, the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo is a unique indicator which gives dynamic support and resistance levels, trend direction/strength, volatility levels and clear/precise rules for entry and exit parameters. Combine all those weapons and you have a powerful method for trading the global markets.
In this webinar we will talk about how you can find filtered intraday trending moves, spot upcoming weaknesses in an instrument, and find unique trading opportunities through Kumo Analysis.




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As all other majors, the Euro dropped significantly after the Fed, and went back to 1.4685, but it stood its ground and spent the whole Asian session above 1.47. This return could provide us with the chance to retest the falling and broken trendline, inside the rising channel, which is currently at 1.4646, which is the support of the day. Whereas resistance of the day is Fibonacci 61.8% for "post-Fed decline". This is currently at 1.4782. We expect the Euro to spend sometime between those two levels, before breaking one of them. In case we break 1.4646 the Euro would be already in a correction for the whole rise from 1.4176, which would target 1.4588 at least, and could reach 1.4430. On the other hand, breaking 1.4782 would indicate that the "post-Fed decline" is just temporary and limited, and that we will be heading towards 1.4901.

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  #10  
Unread 09-29-2009, 04:55 AM
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Forexpros.com Daily Analysis - 29/09/2009

Forexpros Daily Analysis Sep. 29, 2009

Free webinar - The Ichimoku Cloud

Expert: Chris Capre
When: Thu, Oct 1, 2009, 12:00 EST

A Trend, Volatility and Oscillator combined, the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo is a unique indicator which gives dynamic support and resistance levels, trend direction/strength, volatility levels and clear/precise rules for entry and exit parameters. Combine all those weapons and you have a powerful method for trading the global markets.
In this webinar we will talk about how you can find filtered intraday trending moves, spot upcoming weaknesses in an instrument, and find unique trading opportunities through Kumo Analysis.


.

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Moving steady inside the falling channel on the intraday charts, the Euro approached the top of the channel five times, without breaking it, which indicates that the falling trend (for the short-term is still safe. As long as price does not break this channel to the upside, the short-term downtrend will go on, and try to reach the end of the channel, which is below 1.45, during this week. On the other hand, if price manage to break this channel to the upside, the Euro will be free from the falling trend, and will try to reach new tops over 1.48, this week also. The most important resistance is 1.4639, which represents the top of the falling channel. Breaking this "top" will mean that we are on the way to areas above 1.47, most important of which are 1.4720 and 1.4776. The most important support is 1.4597, and breaking it means that the falling trend will try to reach Fibonacci 50% at 1.4509, or Fibonacci 61.8% at 1.4430.

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  #11  
Unread 09-30-2009, 07:22 AM
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Forexpros.com Daily Analysis - 30/09/2009

Forexpros Daily Analysis, Sep 30, 2009


Free webinar tomorrow - The Ichimoku Cloud

Expert: Chris Capre
When: Thu, Oct 1, 2009, 12:00 EST

A Trend, Volatility and Oscillator combined, the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo is a unique indicator which gives dynamic support and resistance levels, trend direction/strength, volatility levels and clear/precise rules for entry and exit parameters. Combine all those weapons and you have a powerful method for trading the global markets.
In this webinar we will talk about how you can find filtered intraday trending moves, spot upcoming weaknesses in an instrument, and find unique trading opportunities through Kumo Analysis.




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The Euro stopped just below the most important resistance in yesterday's report 1.4639 (Asian session high was 1.4631). But even though, it is trading now above the falling channel, after it succeeded in breaking it. Still, we can spot a trendline that stopped the Euro, which is the rising trendline from inside the falling channel. We can clearly see that price stopped accurately at this line, running currently at 1.4639, the most important resistance for today as it was for yesterday. If we break it to the upside, the Euro will be free from the falling trend, and will try to reach areas above 1.47, most important of which are 1.4720 and 1.4776, and may be areas above 1.48 later this week. The most important support is 1.4590, which represents the retest level of the channel that was broken during the Asian session. And breaking it means that the falling trend will try to reach Fibonacci 50% at 1.4509, or Fibonacci 61.8% at 1.4430.

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  #12  
Unread 10-01-2009, 05:41 AM
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Forexpros.com Daily Analysis - 01/10/2009

Forexpros Daily Analysis, Oct 1, 2009


Free webinar today! - The Ichimoku Cloud

Expert: Chris Capre
When: Thu, Oct 1, 2009, 12:00 EST

A Trend, Volatility and Oscillator combined, the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo is a unique indicator which gives dynamic support and resistance levels, trend direction/strength, volatility levels and clear/precise rules for entry and exit parameters. Combine all those weapons and you have a powerful method for trading the global markets.
In this webinar we will talk about how you can find filtered intraday trending moves, spot upcoming weaknesses in an instrument, and find unique trading opportunities through Kumo Analysis.




---



The Euro is testing at this very moment the short-term support 1.4563, after dropping hard in the last half hour. This support is the last barrier before testing Fibonacci 50% which is at 1.4509. Short-term resistance is 1.4622, and breaking it would give another attempt to reach 1.47 (after yesterday's attempt). If 1.4563 is broken, then the falling correction will try to reach Fibonacci 50% support at 1.4509, or Fibonacci 61.8% at 1.4430. In this case, this support in particular will become the most important support for the medium term, since breaking it would mean that this drop is more than just a correction, and that the uptrend which started at 1.4176 is already over. On the other hand, if we break 1.4622 we will head first to the resistance area that stopped the price twice yesterday and during the Asian session 1.4668-1.4672. We do not expect a lot of trouble here, on the contrary we would expect to pass it, and reach 1.47 and above, especially the important resistance 1.4720.

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  #13  
Unread 10-05-2009, 04:59 AM
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Forexpros.com Daily Analysis - 05/10/2009

Free Webinar Tomorrow on Forexpros.com


How To Trade Forex & Swim with the Turtles for Fun and Profit

Hosted by David Hunt of Turtle Trading

Start: Tue, Oct 6, 2009, 09:00 EST/13:00GMT

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=================


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The Euro broke the falling trend channel for the short-term, twice, but in the two times it stopped at 1.4646. Which will make this resistance specifically the most important for the short-term. A break here would be a confirmation of the break of the descending channel, and the start of the rise back to areas above 1.47, specially 1.4720. For the next few days, a break of 1.4646, and successfully reaching areas above 1.47, might mean the end of the downtrend falling from 1.4842, and the start of the rise that will challenge this top. The most important support for the short-term is the broken line of the falling channel, and the retest level at 1.4588. It will be the most important support for today because breaking it would mean that the price is back inside the falling channel, which will bring Fibonacci levels 1.4509 & 1.4430 back into focus.

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  #14  
Unread 10-06-2009, 05:25 AM
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Forexpros.com Daily Analysis - 06/10/2009

Forexpros Daily Analysis Oct 6, 2009


Free webinar today! - How To Trade Forex & Swim with the Turtles for Fun and Profit

Expert: David Hunt
When: Tue, Oct 6, 2009, 09:00 EST

In February 2007, Original Turtle Trading's Russell Sands created a new system for Forex, based on the principles handed down by Market Wizard Richard Dennis in futures.

This webinar will review the very same Turtle Forex system which generated 200% in 2007 and 196% return in 2008.




---


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The Euro accurately reached the retest level that we specified as 1.4588 (yesterday's low 1.4592), and retested the broken channel successfully. Then it started rising and reached the important resistance 1.4720 this morning, which was specified as the most important target in yesterday's report (the high until the moment of preparing this report is 1.4716). The Euro could keep these benefits, and advance even more if price stays above the short-term support 1.4668, which is the rising trendline from Friday's high, on the intraday charts. If we stay above it, there will be another attempt to break 1.4720 and head higher. And although we notice a resistance at 1.4776, we believe that if the Euro breaks 1.4720, then it will be able to reach areas above 1.48 within 24 hours after the break, first of which is 1.4824, then new highs above the tops of September 22nd & 23rd.

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  #15  
Unread 10-07-2009, 05:25 AM
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Forexpros.com Daily Analysis - 07/10/2009

Forexpros Daily Analysis Oct 7, 2009


Free webinar - Get to grips with Position Sizing

Expert: Tony Beckwith
When: Thu, Oct 29, 2009, 12:00 EST

Tony Beckwith of specialist risk control software firm MTPredictor returns to explain how to get your forex trade size right to cope with winners - and why it is imperative to do so!




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The Euro advanced to 1.4761 before retreating back to 1.4682, and with that, it stayed for the whole past 24 hours above the important support specified in yesterday's report 1.4668, keeping our positive outlook intact. But even with this new high, things have changed a lot, because the Euro is threatened with a correction for the whole move from 1.4480, after spotting reversal signals on the Japanese candlestick charts: a (Shooting Star) pattern on the hourly chart, and an (Engulfing) pattern on the 4 hour chart. That is why we will drive our attention towards Fibonacci retracement levels for the move from 1.4480 on Friday to 1.4761 yesterday. But, we will not assume there is a correction underway, before trading below the moving average SMA50, which clearly supported the price since Friday, and is running currently at 1.4682. As long as the price is above the moving average, we will maintain a positive outlook for the short-term, and we believe that there will be another attempt to break 1.4720 and head higher. And although we notice a resistance at 1.4776, we believe that if the Euro breaks 1.4720, then it will be able to reach areas above 1.48 within 24 hours after the break, first of which is 1.4824, then new highs above the tops of September 22nd & 23rd.

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  #16  
Unread 10-08-2009, 07:04 AM
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Forexpros.com Daily Analysis - 08/10/2009

Forexpros Daily Analysis Oct 8, 2009

Free webinar - Get to grips with Position Sizing

Expert: Tony Beckwith
When: Thu, Oct 29, 2009, 12:00 EST

Tony Beckwith of specialist risk control software firm MTPredictor returns to explain how to get your forex trade size right to cope with winners - and why it is imperative to do so!




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First we would like to draw your kind attention to the ECB rate decision that will come out later today, and to president Trichet's news conference that will follow. The Euro advanced to 1.4761 before retreating back to 1.4682. And with that, 1.4776 became the most important resistance for the short-term, and the key to reach new tops. If broken, the Euro will be able to reach areas above 1.48 within 24 hours after the break, first of which is 1.4824, then new highs above the tops of September 22nd & 23rd, the most attractive of which is 1.4901. On the other hand the most important support for the short-term is Fibonacci 61.8% at 1.4695, holding above it is crucial for the upward movement. But if it's broken, we expect a test of one of the important support levels in the 1.46 & 1.45 areas such as 1.4645, 1.4613, 1.4575, down to 1.4509.

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  #17  
Unread 10-12-2009, 04:37 AM
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Forexpros.com Daily Analysis - 12/10/2009

Forexpros Daily Analysis Oct 12, 2009


Free webinar - Get to grips with Position Sizing

Expert: Tony Beckwith
When: Thu, Oct 29, 2009, 12:00 EST

Tony Beckwith of specialist risk control software firm MTPredictor returns to explain how to get your forex trade size right to cope with winners - and why it is imperative to do so!




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The Euro stopped at the resistance established in Friday's report 1.4772 with amazing accuracy, a stop which was a signal that we are heading to areas below 1.47. And now, there is a resistance that combines the rising trendline drawn from 1.4566, and the falling trendline drawn from 1.4816, and is currently at 1.4725, if price stay below it, we are heading south. The probability of more downside grows with a break of the nearby support 1.4693. Such a break would signal more of the drop, to test one or some of the important support levels in the 1.46 & 1.45 areas such as 1.4645, 1.4613, 1.4575, down to 1.4509. The most important resistance is short-term is of course 1.4725. If broken, the Euro will be able to reach areas above 1.48, first of which is 1.4824, then new highs above the tops of September 22nd & 23rd, the most attractive of which is 1.4901.

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  #18  
Unread 10-13-2009, 04:47 AM
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Forexpros.com Daily Analysis - 13/10/2009

Forexpros Daily Analysis Oct 13, 2009


Free webinar - Get to grips with Position Sizing

Expert: Tony Beckwith
When: Thu, Oct 29, 2009, 12:00 EST

Tony Beckwith of specialist risk control software firm MTPredictor returns to explain how to get your forex trade size right to cope with winners - and why it is imperative to do so!




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As expected, the Euro jumped after breaking 1.4725, but the rise stopped just above 1.48, exactly like what happened last Thursday (yesterday's high 1.4812, Thursday's high 1.4816). It seems like reaching the resistance area 1.4808-1.4816 has become a problem for the Euro, since it failed twice at the same area. The falling trendline from yesterdays high, on the intraday charts, will provide the most important resistance for the short-term at 1.4788, and this resistance is the key to break the hard area 1.4808-1.4816, and the well known resistance which is just above it 1.4826, then may be new highs above the tops of September 22nd & 23rd, the most attractive of which is 1.4901. Support is at 1.4728, a break here would signal more of the drop, to test one or some of the important support levels in the 1.46 & 1.45 areas such as 1.4645, 1.4613, 1.4575, down to 1.4509.

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Unread 10-14-2009, 05:14 AM
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Forexpros.com Daily Analysis - 14/10/2009

Forexpros Daily Analysis Oct. 14, 2009

Free webinar - Get to grips with Position Sizing

Expert: Tony Beckwith
When: Thu, Oct 29, 2009, 12:00 EST

Tony Beckwith of specialist risk control software firm MTPredictor returns to explain how to get your forex trade size right to cope with winners - and why it is imperative to do so!




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Traders in the U.S await tomorrow's publication of the Department of Labor's monthly CPI measurement (Oct 15).

The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services excluding food and energy.
The CPI measures price change from the perspective of the consumer.
It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation in the US.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD (as the common way to fight inflation is raising rates, which may attract foreign investment), while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
Analysts forecast no change in the current rate, standing at 0.10%

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[color=black]
Finally, the Euro reached new tops for this year, and came very close to our favorite target 1.4901 (the high until this very moment is 1.4898). By taking a look at the drawn channel we find that the important question now is will 1.50 be the next stop? To answer this question, we must estimate the strength of the resistance levels in this area, especially 1.4901 & 1.4953. We expect that in case of a break 1.4901, the Euro will be able to reach 1.50. But, if 1.4901 succeeds in capping the price, what will be expected is a correction for the move up from 1.4672 (at least), which is expected to drop the price back to 1.4793 first, and if broken, we can expect more drop. The important support now is the nearby 1.4872, a break would signal that a correction of some kind has started. To summarize: 1.4901 is resistance of the day, a break would lead to 1.50, while the support of the day is 1.4872, and a break here would lead to 1.4793 as the first important stop, and if broken we will head to the important support on the intraday charts 1.4755.

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Unread 10-15-2009, 04:52 AM
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Forexpros.com Daily Analysis - 15/10/2009

Forexpros Daily Analysis Oct 15, 2009


Free webinar - Spotting behavioral and fundamental clues in the market to catch giant price moves

Expert: Kris Matthews
When: Sun, Nov 1, 2009, 10:00 EST

Traders often forget that the market is made up of human beings, rather than price patterns and news events. Your edge in the market (and in any zero-sum-game) is knowing something about the other players' positions.
To profit from the currency market you must understand that there are three groups of players in the currency market and each has particular motives, limitations, and behaviors. Identifying the clues that each of these groups leave behind in a systematic manner will position you to capture the large macro moves in the forex market.




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Tomorrow (Oct 15) The US Treasury Department will publish the monthly Treasury International Capital (TIC) Net Long-Term Transactions Report.

The report measures the monthly difference in value between US purchases of long-term foreign securities and foreign purchases of US long-term securities.
The TIC flows is a key resource of the US government for offsetting the Trade Deficit. It can give a good reflection on demand for USD
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
Analysts predict last month's measurement of 15.30B to fall to 11.00B.

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[color=black]
As expected, the Euro continued its rise, but until this very moment did not reach our target of 1.50. By taking a look at the two drawn channels, we see that they unite just above 1.50, which gives this area a lot of importance. And we assume very reasonably that this area is one of the best candidates to change short-term direction. Thus we must keep an open eye towards any reversal signals that could appear here. On the other hand, if it is broken, we will get closer to 1.51, since we see the next stop as 1.5082, on the way to higher prices. The short-term support now is the nearby 1.4933, a break would signal that a correction of some kind has started. And if this is the case, what will be expected is a correction for the move up from 1.4672 (at least), which is expected to drop the price back to the important 1.4782 first (Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term, plus the rising trendline from 1.4480 on the intraday charts), and if broken, we can expect more drop.

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